Can ADC afford to trust Kwankwaso?

BY ABDULHAMID AL-GAZALI, JANUARY 07, 2026 | 02:45 PM

Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso has been thrown into major political confusion over the planned defection of Engr. Abba Kabir Yusuf, his godson and son-in-law. If it is not a charade, it is pathetic for Kwankwaso. Many of us still see it as a ruse. Some argue that it is all staged and that both Kwankwaso and Abba Gida-Gida are working for the APC.

For instance, they say Kwankwaso did not seem to be as offended by his godson’s political ‘betrayal’—which should have been more painful—as he was when his friend, former Governor Abdullahi Ganduje (2015–2023), deserted him. True or not, time will tell. The only thing is that, if it is a game, it is a bad game for him. It will, at the end of the day, destroy his credibility as a good political mentor if two of his greatest beneficiaries desert him successively. You must at least wonder if the mentor is a good one.

What we so far know is that Kwankwaso has an ambition to be Nigeria’s president. He strongly believes that someday this will happen, even though he is not playing his cards well. To achieve this, all he seems to have is the ambition, Kano (now a part of it), and himself. With this, if he doesn’t do anything quick, he will only continue to be a piece in some people’s political calculations.

Some people believe that when the rumored defection of Abba Gida-Gida to the APC finally happens, Kwankwaso’s only possible political rescue is to join the mustering opposition in the ADC. But even that would not necessarily help him except if he changes his ways. The only thing he can do well if he switches over is to choose to work for the party’s victory, not chart a path for his personal ambition. If not, everything else he may do is almost entirely too late for him. And it is also in the best interest of the ADC not to let him do anything beyond that.

First of all, Kwankwaso believes in his political worth, which has been his cult-like followership in Kano, especially among the youth. With Kano having one of the largest voter populations in the country, this is a big deal in Nigerian politics.

But unfortunately, Kwankwaso did little or nothing to go beyond Kano. Even in nearby Jigawa, this influence is not felt. Now, even more unfortunately, the planned defection of Abba Gida-Gida—if genuine—will put a huge strain on the support he enjoys in the state. Many will happily choose Kwankwaso’s farewell words: a ci dadi lafiya.

Secondly, Kwankwaso is himself not a trusted political ally and was always playing politics without any morality. It was actually him who started romancing the ruling APC before his godson somehow started tasting the honey and got addicted. It is even an irony today that we are talking about Engr. Abba’s defection, not his.

Given this record, his own rumored defection to the ADC would therefore come at a huge cost. If the coalition in the ADC was primarily built against the ills of the Tinubu administration, it didn’t seem Kwankwaso would share the same objective with them. Because if Kwankwaso believed in their objective, the coalition would not have been needed today.

In 2023, Kwankwaso worked for the APC. This is the only meaning for what he did. With his experience as a former minister, governor, and senator, he certainly knew that with just Kano alone, nobody would become Nigeria’s president. His bid was an effective technical sabotage to Atiku and Peter Obi, those he will now be going to join in the ADC.

As such, thirdly, Kwankwaso should be treated with measured scepticism. Pundits said he contested in 2023 to test his political worth ahead of 2031, even though he did the same in 2015 and 2019. But others said he did a hatchet job for the APC in return for support come 2031. It is therefore in the best interest of those in the ADC to now also ask: what if he attempts the same thing in the ADC? With internal sabotage visibly at play over the last election, and almost successfully wrecking hitherto powerful parties like the PDP and LP, this is one of the major things the ADC must work tirelessly to checkmate. As 2027 draws closer, it should expect some high-profile defections, and some of them may make or mar the party.

Kwankwaso did not identify with the coalition from the start, probably because he was then politically safe. Both he and the party should understand the cost of any preferential treatment to any politician no matter how highly placed, and sober up. In fact, the party must treat as very serious the case of internal democracy in setting up its structures and electing its flag bearers. Anything other than that will ruin the party.

So far, the party's greatest potential for winning the next election is obviously an Atiku-Obi ticket, given their performance in previous elections. The party must pair up its biggest assets from the north and south to stand any chance of winning the next elections. And even that one should be so clinically done to avoid bad blood, animosity, and even internal sabotage from some party members.

In the ADC presently, there are several other equally credible candidates who can claim both being pioneers of the coalition and foundational members. For example, Kwankwaso, coming from the North West, is in a pool of votes. But unfortunately, he is already entirely surrounded by the APC in his own region. And if the defection of Abba is not a staged affair, as is widely speculated, his effective hold of even Kano is no longer guaranteed. As such, he is like any of the other politicians from the region. Nasiru El-Rufai has been one of the faces of the party, with the advantage of an early start; in fact, many see him as the coalition's poster boy. There is also Aminu Waziri Tambuwal. Then there is Atiku, who is so far the party's greatest test against Tinubu. And it is equally highly likely that Gov. Bala Mohammed will join the coalition. All these are a huge test before Kwankwaso.